Surabaya

The pilot(s) of the AirAsia aircraft did not issue a distress signal, disappeared after an attempt to get permission to fly higher to avoid bad weather or because of heavy air traffic. It was flying at 32,000 feet and had asked for clearance to climb to 38,000 feet. When air traffic controllers granted permission for a climb to 34,000 feet shortly after, no response was received from the aircraft. It is possible that when the request for an altitude change was made, the aircraft was already in trouble.

Speculation among pilots has centred on unconfirmed radar data from Malaysia suggesting the aircraft was climbing at a speed of 353 knots – about 100 knots too slow – which may have led to an aerodynamic stall. That the debris field relatively close to the last known radar plot of the plane also points to an aerodynamic stall, most likely due to bad weather.

It is possible that the crew took too long to request permission to climb, or could have ascended on their own initiative earlier, and that poor weather could have played a part as well. If the weather was so bad, perhaps a return to Surabaya may have been considered.

One possibility was that the plane’s pitot iced up in a tropical thunderstorm, giving the pilots inaccurate readings.

The absence of a distress call may indicate that the pilots may have realised too late they were in trouble and were too busy attempting to bring the aircraft under control to issue send a distress call.

The captain of the flight was a former air force pilot with 6,100 flying hours, and the plane last underwent maintenance in mid-November.

This of course is all speculation. When the CVR and FDR are located this will indicate exactly what has occurred.

Our prayers are with the family and friends of the passengers of this flight.

An AirAsia Indonesia (PK-AXC Airbus A320-216 c/n 3648) airliner flying from Indonesia to Singapore with 162 people on board has lost contact with air traffic control. Flight QZ8501 went missing at 07:24 (23:24 GMT), AirAsia stated.
The plane, an Airbus A320-200, disappeared midway into the flight of more than two hours and no distress call was issued. Indonesian military planes and aircraft from Singapore are searching an area of the Java Sea.

PK-AXC Airbus A320-216 Photo: Wikipedia

The flight left the Indonesian city of Surabaya in eastern Java at 05:20 local time (22:20 GMT) and was due to arrive in Singapore at 08:30 (00:30 GMT). The missing jet had requested a “deviation” from the flight path due to bad weather, AirAsia said. Indonesia’s transport ministry said the pilot had asked permission to climb to 38,000 ft (11,000m) to avoid thick cloud.

AirAsia, a budget airline which owns 49% of AirAsia Indonesia, is based in Malaysia and has never lost a plane.

However, 2014 has been a difficult year for aviation in Asia: Malaysia’s national carrier Malaysia Airlines has suffered two losses – flights MH370 and MH17.

Flight MH370 disappeared on a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing in March with 239 passengers and crew. The wreckage, thought to be in southern Indian Ocean, has still not been located. MH17 was shot down over Ukraine in July, killing all 298 on board.

The flight was supposed to arrive early this morning. Hours later the families of the passengers gathered here have very little information. Airport officials are keeping them well away from the media and trying to make them comfortable.

QZ8501 Flight Track Source: FlightRadar24.com

There were 155 passengers on board, the company said in a statement:

138 adults, 16 children and one infant
Two pilots and five cabin crew were also on board
Most on board were Indonesian
Six were from other countries: three South Koreans and one French, Malaysian and Singaporean.

It is difficult to speculate on what has happened to this aircraft, but seeing as evasive ection was taken to avoid weather, that is the most likely cause. However more information needs to be released before a conclusion can arrived at. The simplest causes are always the most likely,